Out of the 16 pro-public school incumbent Republicans running for reelection to the Texas House, six have lost their primary races according to preliminary results, and four more appear headed to difficult runoffs (runoffs will be held May 28). Public school supporters were hoping to see no more than four losses out of this group in order to ensure enough votes were there next session to prevent private school vouchers from advancing.
On the Democratic side, nearly all returning incumbents were able to fend off any primary challengers, except for Rep. Shawn Thierry (D-Houston), who seems poised for a runoff. Rep. Venton Jones (D-Dallas) narrowly avoided a runoff, securing 50.7 percent of the vote. Sen. Nathan Johnson (D-Dallas) was also able to fend off his surprise challenge from Rep. Victoria Neave Criado.
Given the importance of the Republican primary for House races with regards to future voucher fights, we’ve provided more detailed coverage of those races below. We have assigned the races of the “sweet 16” Republicans, as well as Speaker Dade Phelan, into the following categories:
- Lost, No Runoff Expected (6): The opponents in theses races appear to have secured a 50%+ majority to avoid a runoff.
- Down, But Runoff Expected (4): The incumbents in these races are trailing, but their opponents have not yet secured a 50%+ majority.
- Up, But Runoff Expected (1):The incumbents in these races are leading, but they have not yet secured a 50%+ majority.
- Won, No Runoff Expected (6): The incumbents in these races are leading and expected to win outright.
Lost, No Runoff Expected (6):
- HD 11 – Travis Clardy (R-Nacogdoches): Clardy, who has served in the House since 2013, lost his race to Joanne Shofner. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Shofner leads Clardy 63 percent to 37 percent. Shofner is the president of the Nacogdoches County Republican Women and was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and Gov. Greg Abbott. She lists “solidify parental rights and freedom for their children’s school choice” as one of her campaign priorities.
- HD 18- Ernest Bailes (R-Shepherd): Bailes, who lead a key vote preventing the House Public Ed. Committee from meeting to pass a voucher bill during the regular session, lost his race to Janis Holt. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Holt leads Bailes 53 percent to 40 percent. Holt has served on the Silsbee ISD board of trustees since 2014, but supports private school vouchers. Holt was endorsed by President Trump and Gov. Abbott and was funded with over $500,000.
- HD 55- Hugh Shine (R-Temple): Shine, who was first elected to the House in 1986, has lost his race to Hillary Hickland. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Hickland leads Shine 53 percent to 40 percent. Hickland, a stay-at-home mom and conservative activist, supports private school vouchers. She was endorsed by former President Trump, Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, Sen. Ted Cruz and others.
- HD 60 – Glenn Rogers (R-Graford): Rogers, a rancher and veterinarian, lost his race to Mike Olcott. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Olcott leads Rogers 63 percent to 37 percent. The two faced off last year, with Rogers narrowly defeating Olcott in a runoff. Olcott is a research scientist and conservative activist who supports vouchers for private schools. Olcott was endorsed by President Trump, Gov. Abbott, Sen. Cruz and others.
- HD 62 – Reggie Smith (R-Sherman): Smith, who was first elected in 2018, has lost his race to Shelley Luther. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Luther leads Smith 53 percent to 47 percent. Luther, a salon owner who first came into the public eye by defying Gov. Abbott’s lockdown orders during COVID, supports private school vouchers. Luther was endorsed by Sen. Cruz and Attorney General Paxton. Last week, Paxton filed suit against Denison ISD for a post that thanked Smith for his opposition to vouchers.
- HD 121 – Steve Allison (R-San Antonio): Allison, a former school board member of Alamo Heights ISD, has lost his race to Marc LaHood. With 95 percent of votes counted, LaHood leads Allison 54 percent to 39 percent. LaHood is a defense lawyer who ran on a number of hardline conservative issues, including vouchers. LaHood was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz, Gov. Greg Abbott and Attorney General Ken Paxton.
Down, But Runoff Expected (4):
- HD 33 – Justin Holland (R-Rockwall): Holland, a realtor first elected to the House in 2017, is trailing in his race to Katrina Pierson. With 99 percent of votes counted, Pierson leads Holland 39.4 percent to 38.8 percent. Pierson is a conservative activist who previously worked on President Trump’s campaign. Pierson also supports private school vouchers.
- HD 44 – John Kuempel (R-Seguin): Kuempel, first elected to the House in 2010, is trailing in his race to Alan Schoolcraft, who previously served six terms as a state representative. With 99 percent of votes counted, Schoolcraft leads Kuempel 48 percent to 45 percent. Schoolcraft supports private school vouchers and was endorsed by the governor, and received over $500,000 in campaign contributions from Abbott, funded by pro-voucher billionaire Jeff Yass.
- HD 58 – DeWayne Burns (R-Cleburne): Burns, a former trustee at Cleburne ISD, is trailing in his race to Helen Kerwin. Kerwin is a small business owner, former mayor of Glen Rose and former Somervell county commissioner. With 99 percent of votes counted, Kerwin leads Burns 49 percent to 41 percent. Kerwin supports private school vouchers and was endorsed by President Trump, Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick, Sen. Cruz and others.
- HD 21 – Dade Phelan (R-Beaumont): While not included in the “Sweet 16” pictured above, Speaker Phelan’s race is also, somewhat surprisingly, heading to a runoff. Phelan appointed Rep. Brad Buckley, who authored and advanced several voucher bills, as House Public Education Chair, but the speaker has still drawn the ire of many hardline conservatives for appointing Democratic committee chairs and for supporting the House’s impeachment of Paxton. With 99 percent of votes counted, David Covey, the chairman of the Orange County Republican Party, leads Phelan 46 percent to 43 percent.
Up, But Runoff Expected (1):
- HD 1 – Gary VanDeaver (R-New Boston): VanDeaver, who was first elected to the House in 2015, has served on the Public Education and Appropriations committee for most of his tenure. VanDeaver previously served as the superintendent of New Boston ISD. With 99 percent of votes counted, VanDeaver leads Spencer 46 percent to 43 percent.
Won, No Runoff Expected (6):
- HD 4 – Keith Bell (R-Forney): With 99 percent of votes counted, Bell leads his challenger 75 percent to 25 percent.
- HD 7 – Jay Dean (R-Longview): With 99 percent of votes counted, Dean leads his challenger 72 percent to 23 percent.
- HD 71 – Stan Lambert (R-Abilene): With 99 percent of votes counted, Lambert leads his challenger 52 percent to 48 percent.
- HD 72 – Drew Darby (R-San Angelo): With 99 percent of votes counted, Darby leads his challenger 57 percent to 43 percent.
- HD 88 – Ken King (R-Canadian): With 99 percent of votes counted, King leads his challenger 78 percent to 22 percent.
- HD 99 – Charlie Geren (R-Fort Worth): With 95 percent of votes counted, Geren leads his challenger 60 percent to 40 percent.
Two Republican SBOE incumbents are heading to runoffs, Hardy loses to primary challenger
- District 10 – Tom Maynard (R-Florence): Maynard, who has served on the SBOE since 2012, will face off with primary challenger Mary Bone in the May runoff after failing to secure 50 percent majority. Bone currently serves on the Round Rock ISD board of trustees. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Maynard leads Bone 49 percent to 41 percent.
- District 11 – Patricia Hardy (R-Fort Worth): Hardy, who has served on the SBOE since 2002, lost to her primary challenger, Brandon Hall. Hall, a pastor and conservative activist, had originally planned to challenge Rogers in HD 60, but jumped into the SBOE race back in December. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Hall leads Hardy 53 percent to 47 percent.
- District 12 – Pam Little (R-Fairview): Little, who has served on the SBOE since 2018, will face off with primary challenger Jamie Kohlmann in the May runoff after failing to secure 50 percent majority. Kohlmann is real estate agent and former education policy analyst at an Austin conservative think tank. With 99 percent of the votes counted, Little leads Kohlmann 35 percent to 26 percent.